Flying Machines That Fly

For the past week or so, a goofy and delightful game called enclose.horse has been a part of my morning routine. I wake up, give a solid if sleepy effort scrutinizing and exhausting all possible alternative strategies (or so I think). I submit my plan and usually get a gold medal: 49 -- 96% of optimal. 62 -- 97% of optimal.

Dang, so close.

At some point later in the day, I'll get a text message from my wife.

Her: What score did you get in the horse game?

Me: 97%

Her: No, like the score score.

Every day, I tell her. And every day, she resoundingly beats me and gets the coveted 💎perfect score💎.

Now, part of this is that she is just legitimately better than me at the game. But I also think that knowing what is possible encourages you to keep pushing until you achieve the best possible result.

Between 1 and 10 million years

This interaction has reminded me of Rear Admiral George W. Melville's famous New York Times article. On Oct. 9, 1903 Melville, former Engineer in Chief of the US Navy, decorated veteran, and all around smart-guy published "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly."

In it, he predicted that humans will not develop a working flying vehicle for between 1 and 10 million years. A little over two months later, the Wright brothers had their first successful flight at Kitty Hawk.

Similarly, in April, 1953 Isaac Asimov wrote the short story Everest. In it, Asimov predicts that the summit of Everest would not be reached by human climbers. Rather, he predicted that the first person to conquer Everest would be flown in, reaching the summit by parachute.

In May 1953, Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay would be the first people to stand on Earth's highest point having, of course, made the climb without the benefit of a parachute.

In both of these examples, intelligent, capable people overly confident in their worldview were proven spectacularly wrong by individuals with a conviction that a better world was possible. In reality, innovation and incredible feats were right around the corner, mere weeks away.

In this metaphor, my approach to enclose.horse is more akin to the perspectives shared by Melville and Asimov. I think I have examined the playing field. I believe that I have seen all that there is to see and that there is no immediate path forward to a better outcome.

My wife, however, armed with just the tiniest bit of knowledge about what is possible, is able to excel. To absolutely and utterly crush me in our daily contest.

She, like the Wright brothers, like Hillary and Norgay, was convinced of the reality of a better world and with that conviction is able to realize that better world. Or at least a better score...

New year, new gig, new perspective

This past week, I started a new role at Code for America. In this new role, my friend and collaborator Sanket Karuri and I are starting an initiative to build the systems and technical infrastructure that we believe will form the foundation of state and local government capacity for the AI era.

This period of excitement in my own life, however, has been shadowed by goings-on in the world. From dangerous and short sighted foreign policy instability to vile and inexcusable law enforcement actions here at home, the news has been heavy.

All of this comes on the back of a challenging year for many Americans and people around the world. Food insecurity is rising. Homelessness is rising. And the funding and institutions meant to meet those challenges are being gutted.

But despite these challenges, the perspective I'm trying to bring to this new role and this new year is one of possibility. Just like in my morning game, it is easy to look at the board, see the obstacles, and decide that the current outcome is the best we can do. It is much harder to believe that there is a better score hidden in there somewhere.

But I am choosing to be convinced that a better world is possible and that hard, thoughtful work can help us realize it.

This year, I am going to ask and re-ask myself the question that drives that conviction: "What would you do if you knew it was possible?"